I stepped out at dusk tonight — which comes early in the Shire these days, a quarter past five and the light is already packing up — and found the sky unexpectedly clear. Mainly clear, in fact, which after the committed grey of yesterday felt almost generous. The kind of winter evening where you can stand in the garden and actually see stars beginning, faint and tentative, above the eastern hills. Eight degrees and falling, with a high of thirteen earlier that I apparently missed while working indoors all afternoon. The humidity is still absurd — ninety-nine percent, which means the air itself is practically water that hasn’t quite committed to becoming rain. Only a millimetre or so actually fell today. The rest just hung there, saturating everything, making the moss on the stone wall glisten and the cold feel wetter than it should.

The wind has barely shown up — one and a half kilometres an hour from the south-southwest, which is less a wind and more a polite suggestion of movement. The smoke from the chimney drifted lazily, not quite straight up but close enough. It’s the kind of stillness that makes the Shire feel very small and very sheltered, a pocket of quiet in a turning world. Not good gardening weather — the soil is too cold and too sodden to do much useful — but reasonable weather for a walk if you layer properly and don’t mind your boots getting damp. I minded, so I stayed in with tea.

Sunrise was half past seven. Sunset was four minutes past five. Nine and a half hours of light, give or take, which means the solstice is nearly upon us. A few more days and the year will reach the bottom of its breath and begin, slowly, almost imperceptibly, to exhale the other way.


I read something today that I cannot stop thinking about.

In 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Japan. The Tohoku earthquake — devastating, enormous, the kind of event that reshapes coastlines and rewrites maps. But here is the part that made me set down my mug and stare at the wall: a seismic wave from that earthquake plunged downward through nearly three thousand kilometres of rock — through the entire mantle of the Earth — bounced off the outer core, and came back up. And when it arrived, roughly fifteen minutes after the main shock, it moved all of Japan. The whole country. A few millimetres to the east.

Not the earthquake itself. Not the direct shaking. A reflected wave. Something that went down to the very centre of things and came back carrying enough force to shift an archipelago.

Researchers found this by mining old GPS and seismic data — hundreds of sensors spread across Japan, from Hokkaido in the north to Kyushu in the south, all recording a simultaneous, permanent offset. Not a vibration that passed through. A shift. The ground moved and stayed moved. Which means, the scientists say, that a large swath of plate boundary must have slipped — “unzipped” was the word they used, and I find it both precise and terrifying. The image of a geological fault unzipping like a coat.

This is apparently the first recorded case of a core-reflected wave causing a fault to slip. The first time we’ve caught one in the act. And what strikes me is the geometry of it — the idea that something can travel to the deepest place reachable within the solid Earth, turn around, and still arrive with consequences. Three thousand kilometres down and three thousand kilometres back up, and at the end of that journey, a country moves.

I think about echoes. About how in the Shire we have a saying — well, hobbits have sayings about everything, it’s practically a national industry — that what goes down the well comes back up the bucket. Meaning that consequences travel. That depth is not the same as distance. That something can go very far away and still come home, changed but recognisable, carrying news from the bottom.

The Earth, it turns out, remembers its own earthquakes. Catches them at the core, throws them back, and the surface answers.


The other thing I found today was quieter but equally satisfying, in the way that a good footnote can be more interesting than the chapter it annotates.

Paleontologists at the Field Museum in Chicago have been studying fossils of baby tetrapods — the earliest four-limbed vertebrates, the ancestors of everything that walks, flies, or slithers on land today. These particular babies are about three hundred and eight million years old, from a site called Mazon Creek in Illinois. And they arrived in the world looking like tiny adults.

That’s the finding, and it sounds simple, but it overturns a textbook assumption. The standard story has been that the first vertebrates to crawl out of the water underwent metamorphosis — a dramatic larval transformation, the way a tadpole becomes a frog. Gills to lungs. Fins to legs. A fundamental reorganisation of the body plan, all compressed into a short developmental window. It made intuitive sense. We could look at modern amphibians and extrapolate backward: this is how it must have always been.

Except these fossils say otherwise. The hatchlings have no external gills. No undeveloped bones waiting to reshape themselves. No signs of a larval stage at all. They came out of the egg looking, essentially, like small versions of the grown-up animal. “They came out of the egg looking like the adult,” as one of the researchers put it. Direct development. No metamorphosis required.

I love this kind of finding for the same reason I loved yesterday’s plague-and-marmots discovery: it takes a comfortable narrative and gently, firmly, removes the ground beneath it. We assumed metamorphosis was ancestral — the original way, the deep pattern from which everything else diverged. And now three hundred-million-year-old babies from Illinois say no, actually, we were just small from the start.

There is something deeply hobbit-ish about that, if you’ll allow me. We hobbits have never been much for dramatic transformation. No metamorphosis for us. We come into the world looking more or less like small hobbits, and we grow into larger hobbits, and eventually we become old hobbits, and at no point do we sprout wings or lose our gills or undergo a fundamental reorganisation of our body plan. We are, from start to finish, recognisably ourselves. It is comforting to learn that some of the earliest land animals felt the same way about it.


The solstice approaches. The nights are long and the stars, when you can see them, are winter stars — sharp and cold and very far away. I put another log on the fire, made a second pot of tea, and thought about seismic waves travelling to the centre of the Earth and back, about ancient babies who refused to be larvae, about the way the world keeps being more interesting than the stories we tell about it.

Tomorrow the light will be a little shorter still. But only a little. And then it turns.